As we experienced in the Fall, there is a new Missouri Classification model that implemented a Championship Factor rather than the previous enrollment multiplier for non-public and charter schools. It moved small private schools like John Burroughs and Priory into Class 4 last season. I summarized the primary changes in my story last September. The Championship Factor will be implemented for Girls Soccer this Spring so it was time to do a similar analysis on the girls side. You can see the quantitative analysis in the spreadsheet at the bottom of this post. Missouri Girls High School Classification Analysis
My analysis is based upon the 2019 District assignments. When MSHSAA does the 2021 Spring update, they will begin with the current school enrollment numbers before then applying the Championship factor to the private schools. Since the 2019 assignments are made with the 1.35 private school adjustment, a school like Cape Notre Dame might start first as a Class 1 program based upon current enrollment before then being placed in Class 3 (the two district jump identified below) based upon the new Championship factor, rather than moving from Class 2 to Class 4 as you might expect based upon the previous classification.
Here are the points that determine whether a team moves up.
* If a team accrues 0-2 points, it remains in the class based upon its raw enrollment
* 3-7 points pushes a team one class over its enrollment
* eight or more points moves the team up two classifications from its raw enrollment
The spreadsheet below identifies all points accumulated the past six years. Again, this is only for non-public and charter schools. To see how the Fall sports broke down by enrollment only, visit MSHSAA.org which is where the Spring breakdown will be listed once completed. I have not heard a date regarding when they might be released.
Here is how the point system works:
1. Post-season points
a. District Champion: 1 point
b. State 3rd/4th Place: 2 points
c. State 2nd Place: 3 points
d. State Champion: 4 points
IMPORTANT: Points are not cumulative within each season. Each program will only receive the points for the highest finish. If a team wins a state title it is four points only. You do not add district points on top of the championship.
This analysis is based upon the 2019 District assignments as I noted above. Missouri Girls High School Classification
UPDATE: A High School coach let me know that all teams were assigned zero points for 2020, which means I needed to change the date range from 2014-2019 to 2015-2020. Adjusting the Sum total under the 6 Yr column accomplishes that. I’ve updated the summary below to reflect that change.
UPDATED: Two teams – St. Vincent and Saxony Lutheran, both outside the St. Louis area, will move up two classes. For Principia, two trips to the Final 4 preceded by two district title seasons adds up to 8 points and a move up two classifications, likely Class 3 this Spring. For Lutheran North
and St. Pius X regular district title runs pushed them into the one classification upgrade, likely into Class 2.
UPDATED: Duchesne’s (236) record of success at the State level gave them the most points accumulated across all four classes with 14. That means they will move up two levels, probably to Class 3 given that the enrollment numbers in the Fall had the boys in the middle of Class 1. Trinity (243) appears to be in a similar situation, moving them to Class 3 this Spring. Four other programs face moves up one level – Bishop DuBourg (216), Notre Dame (402), O’Fallon Christian (219) and St. Francis Borgia (359). O’Fallon Christian earned their four points with the State title in 2018 while the other three programs have been consistent District title winners over time, accumulating the the points that lead to the move.
UPDATED: Three trips to the Final 4 means the St. Joseph (744) will return to Class 4 this year after enjoying one season at Class 3 in 2019 when enrollment changes moved them down. Incarnate Word (466) should join them while St. Dominic (599) make the jump after winning the Class 3 title in 2019 combined with a string of District titles leading up to that apex. Visitation’s (444) 2nd place finish last year and the Final Four visit in 2016 combined with a pair of District titles will move them up one Class.
UPDATED: Only three programs currently in Class 4 and St. Teresa’s string of State appearances (that ended in 2016) is enough to ensure they will remain in Class 4. Cor Jesu (848) and Nerinx Hall (744) will not face a Success Factor although both are large enough to possibly be in Class 4 on that factor alone.
Here is the quantitative analysis. Each year shows D(sistric), F4 (Final 4), 2nd Place or C(hampionship) points for the year. Then I summed it across the row for the 6 Year total column. I’ve highlight St. Louis area schools with Yellow reflecting schools with enough points to move up two classifications and Orange for one classification. The reason for the six year time period is to avoid a school being impacted by a particularly strong class of players although a look at Christian O’Fallon, with their State title season the only year they collected points, shows that the system isn’t perfect, anymore than the multiplier was. Missouri Girls High School Classification